A minimum of one third of the population of Russia may join the army of the poor in 2016. This is the maximum of 11 years, the poverty rate

Fourth quarter of a century economic crisis in Russia is accompanied by an unprecedented over the past 15 years, the decline in household incomes and rising poverty. They occur in the absence of the state and society of financial and institutional capacity for social adaptation. Forecasts are disappointing: analysts expect mass falling living standards and quality of life of citizens. The level of the poor in society, in 2016 Russia can eliminate all the gains of the last decade, returning to the situation in 2005.

In 2012-2013, no one could have foreseen the war and sanctions, few predicted the fall of oil prices to current levels. But even then, many economists foresee: the near future consumption bubble, bloated super-expensive oil and a generous budget payments to burst. Since 2006, the level of wages in GDP in Russia grew, and in the rest of the world since 2007 - was reduced, which, however, a negative impact on the competitiveness and productivity of the economy. In 2014 this figure equaled the world average (52%) and 11 percentage points (p. P.) Exceeded the average in developing countries (41%).

2015 marked the strongest in the new millennium, the real drop in income, wages, pensions and an increase in part-time employment, which will continue in 2016. The consensus of the Analytical Center of the Government of the Russian Federation (AC), RANHiGS, CMASF and the World Bank (with the exception of the Ministry of Economy, which offers real income growth already in 2016) that even the official poverty level will rise by 2 n. N. In 2015 and 2016 - up to 16% and reached a maximum in 2005. The deputy head of the Ministry of Economy Vedev Alex believes that the drop in living standards takes place at “social accord”, describing the situation as “alarming.” Independent analysts are less reticent. Oil rents are now in the household will not suffice.

Resources to support customer growth model is no longer neither the state nor the company nor the majority of households and effective instruments of redistribution of wealth and social adaptation have not created. “The country is moving out to a normal level of wages and consumption. It is a pity the people, but this is the reality,” - said the chief adviser to the head of AC Leonid Grigoriev. “A detailed analysis reveals that the” non-crisis crisis “is quite a crisis. And the fact that his current social manifestations are not severe and dramatic, no one should be fooled,” - warns analyst at the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting RANHiGS.

25 December 2015

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